28May

Acche Din Aane Wale Hai!!………………… Be patient..!

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As we complete a year of BJP Government, looking back at our people,#economy and activities from #parliament to the #manufacturing, many things have changed and changed the perspective of India at large. A year Back BJP government came into power with decisive mandate. The mandate was given mainly due to a wind of change that came from hopes and aspirations of a common man. By Common man, I mean from roadside purveyor to a leading business house. All of them were seeking change which was much needed in the economy which was looking down due to many Scams which happened at record number of times in past few years, rising #inflation which was sweeping away every next rupee from the pockets and to add insult to injury was rising #fiscaldeficit, #policy paralysis and #black money. These are just to name afew.

Narendra Modi, who turned Gujarat into a Business hub and yes , A pro-Business, politician who became the face of BJP and turned this anger of common man into hopes and aspirations and gave quotes like #congressmuktbharat, #wewantchange and as it completed one year we have a new slogan #SaalekShuruatAnek. One year has been fairlywell, if not what we can call tremendous. As the expectations arehigher we can say #Modi Government has delivered some substantial results in last one year. The first and most crucial thing to noticeis that there is less policy paralysis in terms of comparison and wecan point out this government to be policy driven.

The “ModiSarkar” has fairly given some good policies as it has kept most dimensions in mind while preparing them like #JanDhan Yojna for worlds largest Financial Inclusion to #MUDRA Bank which will pave way for SME and MSME. #Make in India is one step towards making India a manufacturing hub and recent visits of PM to more than 16 Countries and inviting and promoting this campaign makes us to believe government is serious about it. #Digital India, #SmartCity programs are looking to be “ideal” in terms of India’s growth towards being a top #emerging market in coming years attracting more business houses in next few years. The revival will be seen in next few years only and only if there are structural reforms done.

If we look at numbers Many things have changed. To point out, Lok Sabhahas been most productive in last 15 years recording at 123%.Transparent auction of Coal and Spectrum, Setting up NITI aayog andhaving all states chief ministers showcases cooperative federalism,Commitment to reduce fiscal deficit and a much praised dis-investmentof PSU’s are recent example of government steps towards its goals.Liberalization of FDI in Insurance, Defence and railways, Easing the cost of dong business, encouraging the PPP model as well are some of the sectoral reforms which are seen as steps to fiscal consolidation.Not to mention, Some of the rating houses are now overweight on India amongst EM and projects the GDP surpass 8% in coming years or 2018 to be specific. Modi government, Not Just Mandate, but was also blessed with benign crude oil prices, reducing gold prices and other international commodities which acted as Cherry on the cake for him.

Pricediscounts everything”. The Indian equity market has been the out performer across the global markets in terms of returns though 2015 has been a year of negative return which shredded its gains in 2014 after the government took charge. The Indian equity markets are in a mother of all bull market and is in a early stages of a wave where we will see a lot of involvement of each and every investor, from retail to HNI. The Minimum alternative Tax regime and India not being a Taxhaven is what has put FII’s in jeopardy. The GST bill and the Land bill which are stuck in Rajya sabha where the government is out numbered will be a critical stage for the government and it will try to push these bills towards select committee without wasting anytime.

In a year we have seen reducing #Inflation, #IIP growth at 2.6% which was much better than expectation, Moody’s rating of #India became stable,Indian markets also gave a decent amount of returns of +13.3% are just some initial numbers to look for. The reforms have been made which are substantial and structural in nature. We need to have more patience and see what these changes will have effect on Indian economy. Though #Modi Government should focus more on consumption,Public investment and Private investment. The make in India is a Dream program but getting it on land is the other side of the story. Digital India is what needs to be in focus as we heads towards 2020 but implementation must be there at lowest level and end user should be benefited in coming years completely. Setting up #SIT and deal with #Swiss tax authorities to make sure #Black money is on the way home and transparent coal and spectrum auction is definitely a praised action to improve image of India Inc. But we are yet to see pick up in services export which continues to be in downtrend along with merchandise trade which may boost the economic activities. India Inc. till now is reliant on the consumption and public investment but much need to be done to make sure it is encouraged at every level by adopting more methods. With All Said and being done “Ache din aayenge” But we need to be more patient and at least be happy there is no scam in a year.

Regards

Lovelesh Sharma

Head-Research

Epic Research Private Ltd.

19May

Epic Research Weekly Fundamental Report Of Dlf On 16 May 2015

COMPANY INFORMATION

DLF’s primary business is development of residential, com- mercial and retail properties. The Company has significant exposure across businesses, segments and geographies. From developing 22 major colonies in Delhi, DLF is now pre- sent across 15 states-24 cities in India. DLF has also forayed into infrastructure, SEZ and hotel businesses.

Latest News about the company:

In a fresh order Thursday against DLF, the Competition Com- mission of India (CCI) ruled that realty giant DLF was guilty of indulging in “unfair and abusive” business practices in sale of apartments in a Gurgaon housing project. CCI has asked DLF Gurgaon Home Developers Private Limited and its group companies to “cease and desist” from such unfair trade practices, but did not impose any fresh mone- tary penalty as Rs 630 crore fine has already been slapped on DLF for similar violation during the same period in a sepa- rate case. Subsequently, the complainants approached CCI alleging abuse of dominant position by the company and the fair trade regulator ordered a probe by its investigative arm.

DLF results on 20 may 2015

DLF Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Di- rectors of the Company will be held on May 20, 2015, inter alia, to consider and approve:
1. Audited Financial Results along with Q4 results for the year/quarter ended March 31, 2015
2. Recommendation of Dividend, if any, for the FY 2014-15.

Technical observation

DLF recently broke down below medium term support of around Rs 145 and we have seen a pennant getting formed on the daily chart which is indicating that this continuation of downtrend is what we are expecting. So the recommendation is to sell DLF for a target of Rs 105 with a stop loss at Rs 140

DLF FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build up has been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains below 130 levels. We advise selling around 125-130 levels with strict stop loss 140 for the targets of 115-105 levels.

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11May

Epic Research Private Limited – Weekly Fundamental Report HUL 9 May 2015

COMPANY INFORMATION

Incorporated in the year 1933, Hindustan Unilever Limited is a FMCG company. HUL has a diversified presence in the FMCG sector with more than 35 brands spanning 20 distinct categories including soaps and detergents, shampoos, skin care, toothpastes, and packaged foods. British-Dutch company Unilever PLC and its Affiliates are the promoters of HUL and own 52.5 % shares in the Company (On 30 April 2013, Unilever PLC announced plans to increase its stake in the Company to 75 % by way of an open offer). Over the years, HUL has grown substantially by acquiring landmark brands and has managed to maintain its dominant market position in various categories. HUL’s portfolio includes leading household brands including Lux, Lifebuoy, Surf Excel, Rin, Wheel, Fair & Lovely, Pond’s, Vaseline, and Lakme.

HUL volume growth rises 6%, Q4 net profit at Rs.1018 Crore: HUL has posted a net profit of Rs. 10180.80 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 8721.30 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2014. Total Income has increased from Rs. 72447.30 mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2014 to Rs. 77740.40 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2015. The Company has posted a net profit of Rs. 43152.60 mn for the year ended March 31, 2015 as compared to Rs. 38674.90 million for the year ended March 31, 2014. Total Income has increased from Rs. 286401.60 mn for the year ended March 31, 2014 to Rs. 314240.10 million for the year ended March 31, 2015.During the quarter, the Domestic Consumer business grew at 9%, with 6% underlying volume growth, both ahead of market.

Financial Year 2014-15: Competitive and profitable growth delivered: The Domestic Consumer business grew by 10% with 5% underlying volume growth, both ahead of market. Profit before interest and tax (PBIT) grew by 17% with PBIT margin improving +90 bps. Profit after tax but before exceptional items, PAT (bei), grew by 8% to Rs. 3843
Crores, impacted by the higher tax rate. Net Profit at Rs. 4315 Crores was up 12%, aided by the exceptional income arising from property related sales. The strong track record of cash generation was sustained as cash from operations exceeded Rs.5000 Crores for yet another year.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sustains above 900 levels. We advise buying around 880-900 levels with strict stop loss 850 for the targets of 925-950 levels.

 

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7May

Weekly Fundamental Report Of Divi’s Laboratories Limited

Divi’s Laboratories Limited develops new processes for the production of Active Pharma Ingredients (APIs) & Intermediates. Divis Laboratories was set up in the year 1990 and established its first manufacturing facility in the year 1995 in Hyderabad and a second manufacturing facility at Visakhapatnam in the year 2002.

The Hyderabad plant comprises of 13 multi-purpose production blocks While the Visakhapatnam site has 14 multi-purpose production blocks. The Company’s product portfolio comprises of two broad segments i) Generic APIs (Active Pharma Ingredients) and Nutraceuticals and ii) Custom Synthesis of APIs, intermediates and specialty ingredients for innovator pharma giants.

The Company operates predominantly in export markets and has a broad product portfolio under generics and custom synthesis. Exports constituted around 90% of gross sales in FY 2013 are as against 89% in the previous year. Exports to advanced markets comprising Europe and America accounted for 77% of business.

Outlook and Valuation :

Divi’s Labs (DIVI) 3QFY15 PAT at INR2.2b was 8% below expectations, mainly on slower topline growth. Revenues grew 6% YoY to INR7.9b (6% miss), while EBITDA margin (36% vs 38% est) was impacted by weaker business mix, resulting in higher miss at EBITDA level (INR2.8b, down 1% YoY). Forex gain of INR112m cushioned profitability, adjusted for which net profit declined 5% YoY at NR2.1b.

We have cut our FY15-17E forecasts by 3-4% mainly to factor lower EBITDA margins (37% now, 100bp lower) on a weaker business mix as well as onset of new capex addition phase. DIVI trades at 22x FY16E and 18x FY17E (P/E), largely in line with its historic average, limiting valuation upside. Onset of large capex addition would also restrainscope for earnings surprise. Strong Balance sheet (net cash), high return ratios (RoE at ~27%) provide valuationcushion. We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Buy earlier), with our revised target price of 1650-1550.

DIVIS LAB FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build up has been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains below 1800 levels. We advise selling around 1750-1800 levels with strict stop loss 1900 for the targets of 1650-1550 levels.

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