Union Budget 2015-16 Economic Survey: FY16 GDP growth seen 8.1-8.5%, scope for big reforms

The Economic Survey for 2014-15 has projected a growth of 8.1- 8.5 percent for FY16, and said there was scope for big bang reforms. It sees growth rate for the current fiscal at 7.4 percent. The Survey said the government was committed to fiscal consolidation, and that the outlook for the domestic macroeconomic was optimistic. The Survey said a double digit growth trajectory was now a possibility, also because inflation was showing a declining trend. The Survey said outlook for external financing was currently favourable, and that the government should control its expenditure to reduce fiscal deficit.

The trend of subdued export performance was key and saving-investment dynamics will be crucial for growth, the Survey said. Among other things, the Economic Survey 2014-15 has recommended that enhanced revenue generation should be a priority of the government, going forward. In addition, the government should meet its medium term fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP, the Survey said.

The Expenditure Management Panel’s recommendations should help the government reprioritize its spending, the Survey said, adding that non-Plan expenditure would have to be trimmed and food subsidies rationalised. The Survey estimates current account deficit at 1.3 percent of GDP this fiscal. They Survey saw turmoil in the Eurozone and interest rate policy in the US as key external risks.

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