Stock Market

28May

Acche Din Aane Wale Hai!!………………… Be patient..!

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As we complete a year of BJP Government, looking back at our people,#economy and activities from #parliament to the #manufacturing, many things have changed and changed the perspective of India at large. A year Back BJP government came into power with decisive mandate. The mandate was given mainly due to a wind of change that came from hopes and aspirations of a common man. By Common man, I mean from roadside purveyor to a leading business house. All of them were seeking change which was much needed in the economy which was looking down due to many Scams which happened at record number of times in past few years, rising #inflation which was sweeping away every next rupee from the pockets and to add insult to injury was rising #fiscaldeficit, #policy paralysis and #black money. These are just to name afew.

Narendra Modi, who turned Gujarat into a Business hub and yes , A pro-Business, politician who became the face of BJP and turned this anger of common man into hopes and aspirations and gave quotes like #congressmuktbharat, #wewantchange and as it completed one year we have a new slogan #SaalekShuruatAnek. One year has been fairlywell, if not what we can call tremendous. As the expectations arehigher we can say #Modi Government has delivered some substantial results in last one year. The first and most crucial thing to noticeis that there is less policy paralysis in terms of comparison and wecan point out this government to be policy driven.

The “ModiSarkar” has fairly given some good policies as it has kept most dimensions in mind while preparing them like #JanDhan Yojna for worlds largest Financial Inclusion to #MUDRA Bank which will pave way for SME and MSME. #Make in India is one step towards making India a manufacturing hub and recent visits of PM to more than 16 Countries and inviting and promoting this campaign makes us to believe government is serious about it. #Digital India, #SmartCity programs are looking to be “ideal” in terms of India’s growth towards being a top #emerging market in coming years attracting more business houses in next few years. The revival will be seen in next few years only and only if there are structural reforms done.

If we look at numbers Many things have changed. To point out, Lok Sabhahas been most productive in last 15 years recording at 123%.Transparent auction of Coal and Spectrum, Setting up NITI aayog andhaving all states chief ministers showcases cooperative federalism,Commitment to reduce fiscal deficit and a much praised dis-investmentof PSU’s are recent example of government steps towards its goals.Liberalization of FDI in Insurance, Defence and railways, Easing the cost of dong business, encouraging the PPP model as well are some of the sectoral reforms which are seen as steps to fiscal consolidation.Not to mention, Some of the rating houses are now overweight on India amongst EM and projects the GDP surpass 8% in coming years or 2018 to be specific. Modi government, Not Just Mandate, but was also blessed with benign crude oil prices, reducing gold prices and other international commodities which acted as Cherry on the cake for him.

Pricediscounts everything”. The Indian equity market has been the out performer across the global markets in terms of returns though 2015 has been a year of negative return which shredded its gains in 2014 after the government took charge. The Indian equity markets are in a mother of all bull market and is in a early stages of a wave where we will see a lot of involvement of each and every investor, from retail to HNI. The Minimum alternative Tax regime and India not being a Taxhaven is what has put FII’s in jeopardy. The GST bill and the Land bill which are stuck in Rajya sabha where the government is out numbered will be a critical stage for the government and it will try to push these bills towards select committee without wasting anytime.

In a year we have seen reducing #Inflation, #IIP growth at 2.6% which was much better than expectation, Moody’s rating of #India became stable,Indian markets also gave a decent amount of returns of +13.3% are just some initial numbers to look for. The reforms have been made which are substantial and structural in nature. We need to have more patience and see what these changes will have effect on Indian economy. Though #Modi Government should focus more on consumption,Public investment and Private investment. The make in India is a Dream program but getting it on land is the other side of the story. Digital India is what needs to be in focus as we heads towards 2020 but implementation must be there at lowest level and end user should be benefited in coming years completely. Setting up #SIT and deal with #Swiss tax authorities to make sure #Black money is on the way home and transparent coal and spectrum auction is definitely a praised action to improve image of India Inc. But we are yet to see pick up in services export which continues to be in downtrend along with merchandise trade which may boost the economic activities. India Inc. till now is reliant on the consumption and public investment but much need to be done to make sure it is encouraged at every level by adopting more methods. With All Said and being done “Ache din aayenge” But we need to be more patient and at least be happy there is no scam in a year.

Regards

Lovelesh Sharma

Head-Research

Epic Research Private Ltd.

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