27Feb

Union Budget 2015-16 India Predictions : Union Budget prediction for FY15-16 By Dharmesh Joshi

Union Budget for the financial year 2015-2016

From hoping for profound reforms, grants for agricultural research and infrastructure, cash subsidies, credit augmentation and insurance for farmers to an enhanced, keen focus on digital and e-commerce sector, reforms like excise roll-backs in the auto sector to extremely defined expectations from the banking budgets, the wish-list for the Union Budget 2015-16 is unending and very ambitious. And, should the credit for such a surge in expectations go to a slew of promises for Achche Din?

The previews say that this year’s Union Budget 2015-16 shall be aimed at spurring domestic economic growth, maintaining fiscal discipline and improving centre-state relationship. Aiming to strike a balance between economic growth and fiscal discipline – the honourable Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley will present the Union Budget 2015-16 on 28th February 2015. The Budget shall be instrumental in effectively channelising the government’s or rather the nation’s resources to achieve the double digit economic growth rate under the leadership of the PM Shri Narendra Modi – thus, taking a concrete step towards fulfilling the dream of Achche Din.

But then, these are just speculations! What exactly should one expect from the upcoming Union Budget? Will the Indian Finance Minister, Mr. Arun Jaitley, have good news for all? Or, will only a few chosen ones and sectors get the special treatment? Ganesha analyses the Horoscope Chart of the Independent India, juxtaposes it with the planetary picture applicable on the day of Budget announcement, and puts forward some interesting observations. Read on to find out the astrological analysis of the Union Budget 2015-2016, and its possible impact on various sectors.

Astrological Analysis

In the Horoscope of independent India, Sun is in the Moon Sign Cancer, and the transiting Sun is passing through the 10th House in the Moon Sign Aquarius and in the Shata-tarka constellation. Such planetary positions indicate that the Finance Minister may take some harsh decisions regarding the gold policy, public sector units (PSUs), GDP growth rate, taxation, income tax and sales tax.

The 5th House represents the mutual funds , speculators, brokerage houses/ companies, education sector and universities. On the day, 2015-16 Annual Budget shall be presented, the Lord of the 5th House – Mercury shall be transiting through the Fortune House in Sharavan Nakshatra – which is a good indicator. However, a planet like Rahu that is known to cause confusions, illusions and mirages is moving through the House signifying the Stock Markets. Thus, despite a favourable move of Mercury through 5th House, overall the coming month may remain negative or unpredictable for the markets.

The transiting Mars forms a conjunction with positive Venus as well as the adverse Ketu at this time. Thus, we may expect to see some new schemes related to the real-estate sector in this budget.

Mercury, a planet that’s considered very positive for the financial realm, shall be transiting through a friendly Zodiac Sign. This favourable movement, thus, shall boost the chances of reforms in sectors like transportation, Navy, Students’ Visa, Financial services etc.

The benign and generous Jupiter has been transiting through its Sign of exaltation i.e. Cancer. And, in independent India’s Chart, 5 important and positive planets – Mercury, Moon, Sun, Saturn and Venus – are posited in Cancer in the 3rd House itself. Thus, Ganesha had predicted in the last budget itself that we may hope to get good results from 2015-16 Union Budget. You can have a look at the stock market indices to get a real proof for the same. In the coming times, the transiting Jupiter shall continue its journey over all these 5 planets in India’s Horoscope till the time around mid-July 2015. The following sectors shall benefit, owing to Jupiter’s positive movement through India’s 3rd House – Railways, Postal Services, Telecommunications, Print Media, Courier and Cargo etc. The Union Budget 2015-16 is likely to bring beneficial schemes for these areas.

Venus, the Lord of India’s Ascendant Sign as well as the 6th House. On the day of Budget, it shall be passing through its Sign of exaltation, Pisces, in the 11th House of Independent India’s Chart. This is another good news. Owing to this positive planetary movement, sectors like/ related to textiles, dairy products, – butter, milk etc., liquid medicines, liquor, betel-nut etc. shall benefit or remain in focus. Plus, since Venus is in a combination with fiery and lively Mars – we can expect a surge in focus towards areas like Public Development, Travel and Tourism, Science and Technology etc.

On the day, the Budget shall be presented, Moon shall be passing through Gemini – in Finance House – in Independent India’s Horoscope. This is a good planetary movement. However, the fact that the Moon shall be in Ardra Constellation on this day shall considerably weaken this positive effect. Hence, it is quite likely that the Finance Minister may also consider tax accumulation, revenue deficit, fixed deposits and foreign direct investment flow, while preparing the Union Budget. The Finance Minister will definitely try to play safe and make efforts to maintain the growth rate.

After mid-July 2015, the benign Jupiter shall start its transit through the 4th House in Independent India’s Chart, which shall shift the focus towards sectors like Agriculture, Infrastructure, Auto-mobiles, Petroleum Products, Dairy Products and Silver Products.

Important Sectors in 2015 :

In the Horoscope of the Independent India, Taurus is the Ascendant’s or First House’s Sign. Ganesha foresees that on the day of Budget presentation, in Independent India’s Chart, Saturn shall have a weightage strength of 1.58, Venus shall have the weightage strength of 1.52, while the Sun shall have the weightage strength of 1.39. Keeping this in view, Ganesha feels that first of all, the sectors typically ruled by the planet Saturn should gain focus. They include Auto-mobiles, Cars, LCVs and HCVs, Ancillaries, Building Materials like cement, concrete etc., Mining and Minerals like iron, coal, zinc, lead, zinc, Metal Castings and Foundry, Compressors, Pumps, Electrodes, Graphite, Engineering products, Fasteners, Rubber, Tyres etc. Further, keeping in view the transiting planets’ position on the day of Union Budget 2015-16 presentation, Ganesha foresees new reforms and schemes coming up/ being announced in the following sectors –

The Lord of the Ascendant House as well as the 6th House (also, the House of Diseases) – Venus – shall be transiting through its Sign of exaltation – from Pisces – in the House of Gains in Independent India’s Chart. Thus, we may see a surge in policies and budget allocation related to multi-speciality and super speciality hospitals, new medical colleges, medical and para-medical facilities etc. Overall, this planetary movement shall have a positive bearing, says Ganesha.

Jupiter, signifier of higher learning and philosophy, is passing through its Sign of exaltation – Cancer. Thus, under the effect of this transit, we may witness a renewed focus in the Union Budget on policies and schemes pertaining to areas like education, higher education, new schools/ college/ educational institutions set-up, skill development, vocational training and also trusts, religious institutions, improvement of infrastructure in popular pilgrimage destinations etc.

Venus is also considered as the planet that is feminine, with distinct focus on adding to overall happiness quotient and social development. Thus, under the influence of Venus’ positive transit on the day of Budget presentation, we can expect to see a renewed focus on areas related to girl child and women empowerment, health and wellness of women, education and wage equality, women safety and security, work-place equality etc.

Currently, the strong and persuasive planet like Saturn is passing through a Zodiac Sign ruled by the fiery Mars (Scorpio), which happens to be the 7th House in Independent India’s Horoscope. The 7th House signifies associations and partnerships, especially the lasting ones. This planetary activity indicates that the Union Budget 2015-16 shall focus on areas like housing, infrastructure and urban planning and development with a vengeance. Plus, at the time of budget, Saturn shall be passing over India’s Natal Ketu, which further indicates that these developmental efforts shall also be aimed at slum removal, fighting poverty, poor or low wage classes etc. Thus, this Budget may announce some schemes for low cost, affordable housing to replace slums, better sanitation and toilet facilities in slum areas etc. But, there is a strong possibility that the government may associate itself with the private sector organisations to implement many of such reforms and schemes.

The transiting Mars and Ketu (which are from the same element) shall be together in a combination on the day of Budget presentation. Mars is the signifier of electricity/ electric waves. Thus, this Budget may focus on launching schemes to increase energy efficiency, finding ways and means to enhance the use of renewable sources of energy and overall power generation. Thus, the power sector may benefit from subsidies and grants in this Budget, feels Ganesha.

The transiting Moon shall be passing through the House of Finances in Independent India’s Chart around the days of Budget presentation. Mars is already posited there. This planetary alignment indicates that there may be an increase in the tax benefit on home ownership or home loans. It is likely that the home loans’ tax exemption may be increased from 1.5 lacs to 2.0 lacs per annum.

Speaking of the Stock Markets, as aforementioned, currently, the adverse planet Rahu is passing through Stock Markets’ related House in Independent India’s Horoscope. Rahu may lead to illusions, volatility and unpredictability. The dates likely to be highly active, wide-fluctuation and volatile dates in the month of March shall be 9th, 10th, 11th, 26th and 31st. Here, Ganesha also gives you a list of the zero weightage dates, around which the times and trends are likely to be highly volatile, fluctuating, erratic and unpredictable at Nifty. Some undesirable events, such as earthquakes, tsunami, terrorist attacks, floods, etc. may happen around these dates, which would clearly and directly affect the stock market.

Shri Dharmesh Joshi is a protege of Bejan Daruwalla and belongs to the team of astrologers declared as official successors to his astrological legacy, by none other than Bejan Daruwalla himself, in an event in Mumbai on the 23rd Nov, 2009.

26Feb

Rail Budget 2015-16 India Update : Budget focuses on augmenting financing: Rail board chief

Terming the Railway Budget as ‘path-breaking’, AK Mittal, chairman of the Railway Board, said its thrust was on laying down a framework for greater institutional financing and added that he expected big-ticket projects to come in over a period of time.

In an interview with Rituparna Bhuyan, Mittal said that the Budget had laid down investments worth up to Rs 6,000 crore through the public-private partnership (PPP) route and said an effective policy framework for foreign direct investment (FDI) had been laid down.

While conceding that non much progress has been made in the railways’ plans to redevelop stations, the board chief said railways had identified 10 stations to be redeveloped.

On the freight hike, Mittal said it was more a “rationalization” of rates and said it would result in a revenue gain of Rs 4,000 crore. “So, on average it may work out to be even less than 3 percent which cannot be said to be a substantial freight hike,” he said.

On electrical energy side we are talking directly to producers because we have been given deemed licensee status and we will be reducing the energy cost of electrical energy, diesel prices are already softening. On staff cost also we are taking certain measures so as to reduce the costs. All these measures combined have resulted in an improved operating ratio of 88.5 percent.

It is really not a freight rate hike. It is basically a combination of three factors. It is reclassifying the commodity, reclassification of the rate as well as slab rates. The combined effect of this will result in some minor hike in some of the commodities but it will also result in reduction of rates in some of the commodities. So, it is not a straight freight hike but some rationalisation of freight.

That may be the highest increase that you are looking for. What we have selected the commodity is, number one the common man is not affected, we are expecting to achieve only around Rs 4000 crore out of total freight earning of more than Rs 1.2 lakh crore. So, on average it may workout to be even less than 3 percent which cannot be said to be a substantial freight hike. In fact this type of rationalisation we keep doing during the course of the year from time to time. So, there was absolutely no specific necessity of mentioning it.

We are after all in a business. We have to make a balance between the input cost and output cost. If input cost goes high, we definitely go in for the freight or fare hike so as to have a balance and so as to serve to our best capabilities to the people of India.

This is a path breaking Budget where not only we have given the planned program for one year, we have also laid down a roadmap for five years. This has happened for the first time. In fact we intend to expand around Rs 8.56 lakh crore over a period of five years and in the first year itself we are targeting Rs 1 lakh crore which is 52 percent higher than the planned outlay of last year.

Now, this planned outlay consists of support in the form of gross budgetary support that we get from ministry of finance. Then we have internal generations and then we have some conventional buying from borrowing through Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC). This time we are also going for some institutional financing which our honourable minister for railway had mentioned in his speech referring to multilateral funding and all that; not that we are not looking for FDI or public–private partnership (PPP). Through PPP route we have provided for Rs 6000 crore in case you see the Budget documents carefully. FDI also we have laid down the policy framework. We expect some big ticket projects to come in over a period of time.

We have already had discussions with World Bank and they have shown interest in funding railway projects which are bankable. We are also going for FDI in a way that we have big ticket projects like loco factories and all that which are moving forward. Further, if you seen ministers speech carefully, he had made a big announcement about train sets which are going to change the scene of our mainline intercity expresses. Those train sets also, initially we may go in for a small import but ultimately they are going to be made in India and that will be only through FDI route.

Asset monetisation basically means I am leasing out my assets for some earnings. I am not selling that asset. It may be by way of station redevelopment where I lease out my air space for getting revenue. While I modernise this system I also get revenue and in turn also get the improved technology for doing it. That is basically monetisation of assets in a way that I earn the revenue without loosing the proprietorship of that particular asset.

We are still working on that for advertising basically one of the components of this advertising and one of the committee has recommend that we can earn around Rs 10,000 crore out of advertising itself which presently is peanuts.

Initially, we have identified five stations then subsequently that number was increased to ten. Somehow we have not been able to make any substantial progress on these stations except for one which is Habibganj near Bhopal. Where we have got al clearance from state municipal bodies etc and we are going for request for qualification (RFQs). So we hope to have agency fix for redevelopment of that particular station in another few months time. The money required for redevelopment will depend upon the plan and size of that station. For Habibganj Bhopal a station the money may be little less than say around Rs 300-400 crore.

No Digital India we are already on social networking sites and we are communicating with our stakeholders. We have Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) which is one of the sites, portals which get maximum hits as far as Digital India is concerned. That is one of the most popular sites. We are going to sell the space on that site also to get more revenues.

26Feb

Rail Budget 2015-16 India Update : Appreciate thrust on capacity expansion, says Kalindee Rail

Sandeep Fuller, managing director, Kalindee Rail says the Railway Minister’s thrust on capacity augmentation in the Budget announced today will go a long way for the Indian Railways.

Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu said the government will partner with private sector to improve rolling stock fleet. The railways will also focus on adopting a medium-term perspective to focus on adopting a medium-term perspective.

One of the key things with which the Railway Minister started was that he mentioned about the vicious cycle of under investment. So, he has set the trend by giving a very systematic development of what are his goals, what are his way forwards and what are his thrust areas.

Amongst the thrust areas there is a major thrust on capacity augmentation which is welcome and which will go a long way in improving the performance of the railways. Besides this he has also talked of increasing the total freight haulage to 1.5 billion tonne which is big target but it is definitely achievable with introduction of better wagons, improved wagon leasing scheme which he is looking at and improved and new designs of wagons to be coming in.

On the whole he has targeted an investment of Rs 8.5 lakh crore over the next five years and that should augur well for the industry as a whole.

When you execute a project in any state it is essential that the state governments also participate because they are also a party to the whole project and the spin-offs thereof. So, participation from the state governments can definitely be looked at.

The only thing is that the project has to be of interest to the state, it has to be advantageous to the state. I would expect that states would come forward and help out in projects which are good for them.

26Feb

Rail Budget 2015-16 India Update : Prabhu’s 5-yr, Rs 8.5L crore investment plan for Railways

Railways Minister Suresh Prabhu, in his Budget speech today, outlined an ambitious capital expenditure target of Rs 8.5 lakh crore over the next five years.

“Any organization must address short-term priorities without glossing over the long-term and medium-term vision,” Prabhu said. “As Vinoba Bhave once said, “You will stumble if you look close to your heels and would certainly fall if you ignore the vision of the long road.”

Prabhu said the Budget was part of a trilogy of documents that charts out the Railways’ vision for the future:

“The first in the series is the White Paper that has been placed today for the information of the House. The second part is today’s Budget for the year 2015-16. This will be followed by a Vision-2030 document that we intend to bring out later this year,” he said.

“The proposals contained in this Budget should, therefore, be seen as the beginning of a Five Year Action Plan to transform the Railways,” he added.

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