Rollovers soar, hint market may gain 5-6% in the run-up to Budget 2014

Traders carried forward bullish futures bets to the July series on expiry of the June contracts on Monday on expectations the market could rebound in the run-up to the Union Budget on July 10. Fresh buildup of positions in Nifty options suggests the benchmark index could gain about 5-6% by the Budget day from the current levels. Rollover in Nifty futures from June series to July was 71% against the three-month average of 59%.

Open interest — outstanding market positions for July series — was around Rs11,000 crore on Thursday, which is almost similar to the build-up when the May series expired. “Traders have carried forward long positions despite the market remaining range-bound for the past three weeks on expectations of reform-oriented budget,” said Amit Gupta head of derivatives research at ICICI Securities.


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